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Current Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

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  • Summary for Tropical Storm Karen (AT2/AL122019)
    ...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
    As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22
    the center of Karen was located near 12.5, -61.7
    with movement WNW at 13 mph.
    The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
    with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Karen

  • Tropical Storm Karen Public Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000
    WTNT32 KNHC 221454
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
    1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

    ...KAREN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
    THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.5N 61.7W
    ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF GRENADA
    ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands
    and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra.

    The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
    Watch for the British Virgin Islands.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Trinidad and Tobago
    * Grenada and its dependencies
    * St. Vincent and the Grenadines

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * U.S. Virgin Islands
    * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
    * British Virgin Islands

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
    progress of Karen.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
    located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Karen is
    moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
    general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
    northwest is forecast to occur on Monday, followed by a turn toward
    the north on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen
    will move away from the Windward Islands later today, and then
    across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday,
    Karen is expected to approach Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km),
    primarily in squalls to the east of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
    area through this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions
    are possible within the watch area beginning on Tuesday.

    RAINFALL: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
    accumulations through Wednesday:

    Windward Islands...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
    Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
    inches.
    Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.
    Far northeast Venezuela and Barbados...1 to 3 inches.

    These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
    mountainous areas.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000
    WTNT22 KNHC 221453
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
    1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

    CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

    THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
    WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
    * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
    * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
    * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
    * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
    * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

    A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
    POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

    INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF KAREN.

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 61.7W AT 22/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
    34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 61.7W AT 22/1500Z
    AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 61.1W

    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W
    MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
    34 KT... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 61.7W

    INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN


    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Karen Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000
    WTNT42 KNHC 221459
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019
    1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

    Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with
    Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated
    early this morning. However, surface observations and a very
    recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is
    well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward
    Islands. Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry
    mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant
    strengthening is expected through 48 hours. In fact, the system may
    have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global
    models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over
    the system on Monday. Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico,
    the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is
    indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the
    structure of the system at that time. At this time, the long range
    intensity forecast is quite uncertain.

    The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in
    good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward
    around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the
    next day or two. A northward motion should continue into mid-week
    as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic.
    After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to
    build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may
    cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period. The
    updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory
    and lies near the consensus models.

    A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
    and British Virgin Islands.

    Key Messages:
    1. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
    affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

    2. Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
    British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
    been issued. Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
    flooding is possible on these islands.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/1500Z 12.5N 61.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 23/0000Z 13.1N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 23/1200Z 14.2N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
    36H 24/0000Z 15.4N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    48H 24/1200Z 16.9N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
    72H 25/1200Z 20.7N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    96H 26/1200Z 23.4N 65.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
    120H 27/1200Z 25.3N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000
    FONT12 KNHC 221454
    PWSAT2

    TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019
    1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
    AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
    12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

    FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
    TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
    PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
    00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

    FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    LOCATION KT

    PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14)

    AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)

    SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) X(18)
    SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

    VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 20(36) X(36) 1(37)
    VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
    VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)

    SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20(33) 2(35) X(35)
    SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

    SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 11(33) X(33) 1(34)
    SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)

    SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11)

    SABA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)

    ST EUSTATIUS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)

    ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)

    BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

    ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

    GUADELOUPE 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

    AVES 34 1 10(11) 13(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)

    DOMINICA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

    MARTINIQUE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

    SAINT LUCIA 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)

    SAINT VINCENT 34 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)

    GRENADA 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN
    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Karen Graphics
    alt="Tropical Storm Karen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
    width="500" height="400" />

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:01:29 GMT


    alt="Tropical Storm Karen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
    width="500" height="400" />

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:32:27 GMT
    ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)
    ...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
    As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 22
    the center of Jerry was located near 25.7, -66.6
    with movement NNW at 10 mph.
    The minimum central pressure was 997 mb
    with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry

  • Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 21
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000
    WTNT35 KNHC 221442
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 21
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
    1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

    ...JERRY CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.7N 66.6W
    ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

    Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Jerry.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
    located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 66.6 West. Jerry is
    moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
    toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward
    the northeast late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
    Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda late Tuesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day
    or so.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
    from the center.

    The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
    Hunter observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
    and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

    SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
    northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. These swells are likely to
    cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 21
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000
    WTNT25 KNHC 221441
    TCMAT5

    TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
    1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
    50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
    12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 360NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z
    AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 66.5W

    FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
    34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
    34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 66.6W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH


    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 21
    Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019 000
    WTNT45 KNHC 221443
    TCDAT5

    Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 21
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019
    1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

    Jerry is not well organized on satellite images, with a
    ragged-looking CDO and limited banding features over the eastern
    semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
    indicate a slight fall in central pressure but the maximum winds
    remain near 55 kt. The storm is under the influence of westerly
    shear, and the numerical guidance does not indicated that this
    shear will relax during the forecast period. Therefore, only slight
    strengthening is allowed for in the official forecast. This is a
    little above most of the model guidance.

    Jerry continues to move north-northwestward, or 340/9 kt, through a
    weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-tropospheric trough
    moving off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days should
    cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward to northeastward
    with some acceleration later in the forecast period. The official
    track forecast is close to the previous one and is also similar to
    the corrected consensus model guidance.


    Key Messages:

    1. The risk of tropical-storm-force winds on Bermuda is increasing,
    with Jerry forecast to pass near the island Tuesday and Wednesday.
    It is too soon to determine what impacts the system may have on
    Bermuda, but interests there should monitor the progress of Jerry.
    A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued later today for Bermuda.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/1500Z 25.7N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
    12H 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
    24H 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
    36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
    48H 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
    72H 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
    96H 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
    Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019 000
    FONT15 KNHC 221442
    PWSAT5

    TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
    1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

    AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.

    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
    AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
    12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

    FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
    TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
    PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
    00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

    FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    LOCATION KT

    HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)

    CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

    ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)

    SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)

    BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 37(56) 1(57) X(57)
    BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14)
    BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH
    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics
    alt="Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
    width="500" height="400" />

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 14:44:29 GMT


    alt="Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
    width="500" height="400" />

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2019 15:25:25 GMT
    ]]>
Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221115
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda. The
National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Karen located near the southern Windward
Islands.

Satellite images show that the thunderstorm activity associated
with a strong tropical wave that has moved off the west coast of
Africa this morning is quickly becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today or tonight while the system moves generally westward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo
Verde Island should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo
Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brown
]]>
Tropical Weather Discussion
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