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Current Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

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  • Summary for Hurricane Gert (AT3/AL082017)
    ...GERT BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...
    As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 16
    the center of Gert was located near 38.7, -62.4
    with movement NE at 31 mph.
    The minimum central pressure was 970 mb
    with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Hurricane Gert

  • Hurricane Gert Public Advisory Number 16
    Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017 000
    WTNT33 KNHC 162032
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Gert Advisory Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
    500 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017

    ...GERT BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
    ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...38.7N 62.4W
    ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
    ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert was located
    near latitude 38.7 North, longitude 62.4 West. Gert is moving
    quickly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). An even faster
    motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday,
    followed by some deceleration and a turn toward the northeast
    Thursday night and Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
    tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday. Gert
    should become an extratropical low by early Friday.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
    center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
    miles (220 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF: Swells generated by Gert will spread northward along the
    east coast of the United States from Virginia northward to
    New England and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two.
    Swells are also expected to continue to affect Bermuda through
    tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
    rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
    weather forecast office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

    ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Forecast Advisory Number 16
    Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2017 000
    WTNT23 KNHC 162032
    TCMAT3

    HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017
    2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2017

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 62.4W AT 16/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 27 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
    EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
    64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
    50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.
    12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 62.4W AT 16/2100Z
    AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 64.1W

    FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.7N 56.9W
    MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
    64 KT... 30NE 35SE 15SW 0NW.
    50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 140SE 110SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 44.3N 48.2W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    64 KT... 20NE 35SE 20SW 0NW.
    50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 48.3N 40.4W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
    34 KT...110NE 150SE 120SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 51.6N 35.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 60NW.

    FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 54.3N 32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT...180NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 62.4W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG


    ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Forecast Discussion Number 16
    Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017 000
    WTNT43 KNHC 162033
    TCDAT3

    Hurricane Gert Discussion Number 16
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017
    500 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017

    Cloud tops with temperatures colder than -65 deg C have wrapped
    almost entirely around Gert's center, although eye temperatures
    have been fluctuating all day. Dvorak intensity estimates vary
    widely, from T4.5 from TAFB to around T5.5 from the UW-CIMSS ADT,
    and since a warm eye has been unable to persist for an extended
    period of time, the initial intensity is raised conservatively to
    85 kt. This makes Gert the first category 2 hurricane of the
    season. The window of opportunity for additional strengthening
    appears to be closing. Gert will be moving over the colder waters
    north of the Gulf Stream in about 12-18 hours, and southwesterly
    shear will be increasing to well over 30 kt in about 12 hours.
    Therefore, a fast weakening trend is forecast to begin on Thursday,
    with Gert becoming a tropical storm by 36 hours. The FSU
    phase-space diagrams indicate that Gert should be extratropical
    just after 36 hours, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all have the
    cyclone being absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the north
    Atlantic by day 4.

    Acceleration continues with the initial motion now 055/27 kt. With
    Gert firmly embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the
    hurricane's forward speed should increase for the next 24 hours,
    followed by some deceleration as the cyclone begins to interact
    with a large cut-off low moving east of Atlantic Canada. Most of
    the track guidance is a little faster on this cycle, although the
    ECMWF is significantly slower. The new NHC forecast is nudged a
    little faster from 12-48 hours, but not too fast given the latest
    ECMWF solution. The post-tropical portion of the track, intensity,
    and wind radii forecasts incorporate guidance from NOAA's Ocean
    Prediction Center.

    Swells from Gert are affecting portions of the mid-Atlantic coast of
    the United States, and are expected to spread northward to New
    England and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two. These
    swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current
    conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast
    office for more information.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 16/2100Z 38.7N 62.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
    12H 17/0600Z 40.7N 56.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
    24H 17/1800Z 44.3N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
    36H 18/0600Z 48.3N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
    48H 18/1800Z 51.6N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 19/1800Z 54.3N 32.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

    $$
    Forecaster Berg

    ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
    Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2017 000
    FONT13 KNHC 162033
    PWSAT3

    HURRICANE GERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017
    2100 UTC WED AUG 16 2017

    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.7
    NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
    ...100 MPH...155 KM/H.

    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
    AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
    18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

    FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
    TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
    PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
    06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

    FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    LOCATION KT

    HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)

    $$
    FORECASTER BERG
    ]]>
  • Hurricane Gert Graphics
    alt="Hurricane Gert 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
    width="500" height="400" />

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2017 20:38:32 GMT


    alt="Hurricane Gert 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
    width="500" height="400" />

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2017 21:24:27 GMT
    ]]>
Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gert, located a few hundred miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have become
a little more concentrated this afternoon. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become more conducive for development during the next
day or so while the low moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are expected to spread across portions of the Lesser Antilles on
Thursday night and Friday, and interests there and elsewhere in
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A second area of low pressure is located about 950 miles west
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and its associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, but upper-level winds
are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation
when the disturbance moves north of the Leeward Islands this
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
]]>
Tropical Weather Discussion
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