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Current Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112018)
    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...
    As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22
    the center of Eleven was located near 13.6, -53.9
    with movement NW at 3 mph.
    The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
    with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven

  • Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 900
    WTNT31 KNHC 222036
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
    500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

    ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR
    SUNDAY...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...13.6N 53.9W
    ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
    was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. The
    depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
    faster west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and
    continue through dissipation.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
    The depression is expected to weaken to a remnant low tonight or
    Sunday and dissipate Sunday night east of the Lesser Antilles.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Brennan


    ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 899
    WTNT21 KNHC 222036
    TCMAT1

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
    2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 53.9W AT 22/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 53.9W AT 22/2100Z
    AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 53.9W

    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.9N 54.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 53.9W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN



    ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 490
    WTNT41 KNHC 222037
    TCDAT1

    Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018
    500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

    Since the last advisory was issued, deep convection decreased in
    association with the depression to the point that it was not
    classifiable with the Dvorak technique at 18Z. However, there are a
    couple of patches of thunderstorms that have developed recently,
    and if they persist they could help the system hold on to tropical
    cyclone status a bit longer. The low-level center remains exposed
    with UW-CIMSS now analyzing nearly 45 kt of westerly shear over the
    cyclone. Gradual spin down is expected during the next 12 to 24
    hours, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by Sunday. Global
    model fields show the surface circulation dissipating by 36 hours
    and that is indicated in the official forecast.

    The low-level center has been moving erratically today, with a
    recent northward jog seen, but the long-term initial motion estimate
    is 305/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered west-
    northwestward by a weak low-level ridge through dissipation, and
    the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward toward the latest
    multi-model consensus.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/2100Z 13.6N 53.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
    12H 23/0600Z 13.9N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Brennan


    ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 337
    FONT11 KNHC 222036
    PWSAT1

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018
    2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
    LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.

    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
    AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
    18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

    FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
    TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
    PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
    06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

    FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    LOCATION KT

    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN

    ]]>
  • Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
    alt="Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
    width="500" height="400" />

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 20:38:54 GMT


    alt="Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
    width="500" height="400" />

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 21:21:54 GMT
    ]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
    ...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
    As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 22
    the center of Kirk was located near 8.6, -24.8
    with movement WNW at 15 mph.
    The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
    with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Kirk

  • Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 915
    WTNT32 KNHC 222038
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
    500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

    ...KIRK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL
    ATLANTIC...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...8.6N 24.8W
    ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
    located near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 24.8 West. Kirk is moving
    toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a westward to
    west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected to
    continue through tonight. A faster westward motion across the deep
    tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with little change in
    intensity expected on Monday and Tuesday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven


    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 746
    WTNT22 KNHC 222037
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018
    2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 24.8W AT 22/2100Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
    34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 24.8W AT 22/2100Z
    AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 24.1W

    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 9.1N 27.1W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 9.5N 31.2W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 9.7N 35.7W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 9.8N 40.2W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.0W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 11.5N 54.0W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W
    MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.6N 24.8W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN



    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 925
    WTNT42 KNHC 222038
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
    500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018

    The convection associated with Kirk is currently disorganized, with
    the majority of it in a cluster to the west of the center. Most of
    the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in
    the 30-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this
    advisory.

    The forecast track takes Kirk over SSTs around 27C for the next 36
    h or so with generally low shear, which appears favorable for
    gradual strengthening. However, there is a possibility that
    entrainment of dry air from an area of African dust present to
    the north of Kirk may allow less intensification than currently
    forecast. From 36-72 h, there is some divergence in the intensity
    guidance between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which forecast
    strengthening into a hurricane, and the dynamical models, which
    forecast little additional strengthening. The intensity forecast
    leans toward the dynamical models during that period. After 72 h,
    Kirk should encounter increasing westerly shear and gradually
    weaken. The intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the
    previous forecast, lies a little above the intensity consensus IVCN.

    The initial motion is now 290/13. The subtropical ridge to the
    north of the storm should steer Kirk quickly westward for the next
    72 h or so, with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt. Later in the
    forecast period, Kirk should turn west-northwestward with a
    decrease in forward speed as it nears a developing weakness in the
    ridge near and to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The new
    forecast track, which is closest to the HCCA consensus model, is
    shifted a little to the north of the previous track. However, it
    continues to lie on the south side of the guidance envelope.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 22/2100Z 8.6N 24.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 23/0600Z 9.1N 27.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 23/1800Z 9.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 24/0600Z 9.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
    48H 24/1800Z 9.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
    96H 26/1800Z 11.5N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
    120H 27/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Beven


    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
    Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 857
    FONT12 KNHC 222038
    PWSAT2

    TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018
    2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018

    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
    8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35
    KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.

    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
    ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
    CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
    AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
    18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

    FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
    TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
    PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
    06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

    FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    LOCATION KT

    GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)

    DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)

    MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

    SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

    SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)

    BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)

    GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)

    TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN

    ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
    alt="Tropical Storm Kirk 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
    width="500" height="400" />

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 20:40:32 GMT


    alt="Tropical Storm Kirk 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
    width="500" height="400" />

    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 21:28:08 GMT
    ]]>
Tropical Weather Outlook

413
ABNT20 KNHC 222321
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward
Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kirk, located well south of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles south-southwest
of Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit
development tonight and Sunday, but conditions could become more
conducive for some development of this system on Monday or Tuesday
while it moves westward and west-northwestward over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, strong upper-level winds
are likely to limit additional development as the system turns
northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United
States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 1000 miles
west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become
conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or
tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the
low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kirk are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kirk are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Brown

]]>
Tropical Weather Discussion

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